Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Sept. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best International Feature
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Could this be the most competitive year for the international feature category? Looks like it is based on the field that will only yield 15 films on the shortlist when the Academy names them in late December.
More announcements have been made for Sweden with “Boy from Heaven” and Venezuela with “The Box.”
Countries that are typically Academy favorites like Argentina, Denmark, France and Mexico have yet to announce. We expect to see Santiago Miter’s “Argentina, 1985” going forward for its title country, especially with the backing of Amazon Studios to help usher it along. Denmark is expected to choose Ali Abbasi’s vivacious crime-thriller “Holy Spider,” even though it’s not spoken in its native language.
Even though “Bardo” got off to a rough start at Telluride and Venice, Mexico would be foolish not to move forward with a big name like Alejandro González Iñárritu, who was nominated for the country with his masterful “Amores perros” (2000) and “Biutiful” (2010). The first and only time Mexico took home the prize was for Alfonso Cuarón’s “Roma” (2018). The streamer also has Edward Berger’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” that will go forth for Germany.
France will be a nail-biter with plenty of quality selections to choose from including the Venice Silver Lion winner “Saint Omer” from Alice Diop, which was picked up by Neon’s boutique label Super. They could also go with Mia Hansen-Løve’s “One Fine Morning” or Claire Denis’ “Both Sides of the Blade.” The country seems unlikely to go with Romain Gavras’ “Athena,” given the distribution of Netflix nor the Dardenne’s “Tori and Lokita,” which could have gone either way as France or Belgium’s selection. The latter opted for Lukas Dhont’s “Close.”
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ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS,
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theater and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: “Drive My Car” (Japan) – dir. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
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Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.