Republicans should ride high. Still facing an unpopular president, a corrupt Democratic Party and a weakening economy, the GOP must move toward a majority in the House and Senate. But that is not the case at all.
Trump and the GOP won 2016 by learning and applying three key lessons: victory matters; focus on winning issues; And grow your alliance.
be a winner not a loser
Many people like to lose in politics. Losing frees you from responsibility. It is easier to sit around and complain than to go through the effort of making and governing the law. Legislation and policy making is difficult, not only does it require negotiation and compromise, but the end result is always at least a little disappointing. Many thinkers like to lose. For them, never compromising is a badge of honor. They don’t really want to be elected to office; They want to be martyrs.
Donald Trump put all that aside in 2016; He was focused on winning both the primary and the general election. For all his faults with regard to political strategy, Trump understood that winning is everything in politics and losing is disgusting.
Trump relied heavily on his personality as a champ and was ready to dismantle all standard conventions of presidential politics. His team took a close look at where Trump needed the votes to win and focused his efforts and his message on those key counties in the major states. They didn’t care more about the popular vote than they did about securing the electoral vote – in other words, they played by the rules and won.
But after losing in 2020, Republicans in general – and Trump in particular – have decided to win the back seat. Trump’s endorsement of his candidate made personal loyalty number one, with little pushback from the GOP leadership, such as it is. For the most part, Trump has managed to sneak through his favorite candidates in crowded primaries. Still, in the crucial Senate race, Republicans are struggling.
Trump’s hand-picked loyalist candidate is performing worse than his ticket-mates on the gubernatorial line. according to real clear politics Average (as of September 21), Ohio Governor Mike Davins point spread gain J.D. Vance has more than an advantage in the Senate race over his Democratic rival in the gubernatorial race about 14 points, Similarly, in Georgia, Governor Brian Kempo vote Senate Candidate Herschel Walker about 7 pointsand Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, Kari Lake, is to perform better by Senate Candidate Blake Masters more than 4 points, In Pennsylvania, only Senate candidate Mehmet Oz is outperforming Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano—both trailing his Democratic opponents, but oz is under water a bit less than mastriano, It’s also worth noting that Walker in Georgia and Masters in Arizona are both losing the election to Democrats.
The problems are not confined to the Senate. Trump’s Totally Predictable Support really Carpetbagger Sarah Palin managed to split the Republican vote in a major congressional contest in Alaska, allowing Democrats to take the seat held by Republicans since 1973.
Do Republicans Really Read Elections?
Making matters worse, Republicans are faltering on the issue front. In 2016 Trump ran on issues that mattered. While he accepted the moralist wing of the GOP to do whatever he wanted, he did not run as a purist. Trump focused on economic issues and showed that illegal immigration can serve as an issue and was not meant to give up hispanic vote,
Yet Republicans today are failing to apply those lessons; Specifically, they are allowing abortion and Trump’s claims of a “stolen election” to interfere with their best issue: the economy.
Abortion is a losing issue for Republicans. as of 14 september Morning Consult PollOf course, 60 percent are in favor of a federal law mandating the use of abortion, and 75 percent are in favor of the use of birth control. Additionally, abortion is better for Democratic voting than the GOP, with 64 percent of Democrats considering the issue “very important,” but only 37 percent of Republicans thinking so. YouGov Benchmark,
Trump’s legal troubles, his January 6 hearing and his relentless obsession with his “stolen election” allegations don’t help either.
According to YouGov, Americans remain very negative towards the January 6 rioters, with 73 percent disapproving of their actions and 60 percent opposing pardons (only 23 percent in favour), including 58 percent of independents. In addition, 62 percent think Trump handled classified documents incorrectly, and 69 percent think it was a serious violation (66 percent and 69 percent of independents, respectively).
Meanwhile, 66 percent of survey respondents think the country is on the wrong track (YouGov); 58 percent think the country is in recession; 75 percent call inflation a “very important” issue, and 59 percent don’t want Biden to run for re-election, including 64 percent as independents.
In such a negative environment, Republicans should be headed for a landslide victory, but their obsession with low-priority issues and, even worse, loudly positioning the wrong side of public opinion, is giving Democrats a real tailwind. .
winning politics is about addition
After decades of trying, the GOP finally broke with working class voters in 2016. Trump’s staunch populism created a huge opportunity for the Republican Party. It came at the expense of suburban women and college-educated voters, though it may have as much to do with Trump himself. (It’s not such a bad business, as people without college degrees were 59 percent 2020 voter.) At the 2016 convention, Trump spoke to Peter Thiel – the First openly gay GOP conference speaker, By 2020, Trump has made serious inroads with Hispanics and even garnered 19 percent of the black male vote – the most for a Republican in decades.
Trump and his team understand a fundamental principle in politics: You win by adding, not subtracting, to your alliance. Marks were reserved for a short list of accuracy test issues. Without that outreach, Trump would not have won or come close in 2020.
There is little evidence in 2022 that the Republican Party is trying to build on the nascent Trump coalition – neither is Trump. For example, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), oblivious to the new GOP coalition, his “rescue america“The manifesto has an implication that it will raise taxes on low-income households. More extreme candidates are moving up in the nomination (sometimes with Democratic help). The RINO adjective is back with a vengeance.
All this adds up to a political blunder of enormous proportions.
If Republicans can solidify their position with working-class voters, they can do away with the suffocating morals that are turning off suburban voters (especially women) and add little to their minority vote. , the party could bank on a 2022 landslide and be the favorite to get the White House back in 2024. Even a small improvement in two of those three groups can do the trick.
As it stands now, Republicans are throwing up their chances and could end up in an outright minority after Election Day. But on the bright side, as losers, they will have much more to rage.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is the co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. follow him on twitter @KNaughton711,